Do NFL Sign-ups Stick Around?

The first two months of 2024 brought some big moments for streaming and sports: in January, Peacock’s exclusive broadcast of the NFL AFC Wild Card Game and Paramount+’s broadcast of Super Bowl LVIII. 

Not only was the match-up between Kansas City and San Francisco on February 11 both the longest Super Bowl game on record and the most watched program in U.S. history, but Antenna estimates that it also drew 3.4M Sign-ups to Paramount+ over Super Bowl weekend. 

Paramount+ provided a free trial offer, and Antenna observed that 68%, or 2.3M, of the Paramount) sign-ups came in through that promotion; the other 32%, or 1.1M, signed-up as paid subscribers. 

Using a comparable three-day window, Antenna’s estimated sign-ups for Peacock’s AFC Wild Card Game were 3.0M*. Peacock did not offer a free trial to coincide with the AFC Wild Card Game, so all of those sign-ups were paid. 

While some may assume a majority of users who sign-up around tentpole events (like big NFL games) will quickly cancel, this isn’t borne out in the data. In the case of Peacock, by the end of February, nearly seven weeks after the AFC Wild Card Weekend, Antenna observed 29% of the AFC Wild Card sign-up cohort had canceled their subscription, meaning 71% remained subscribed. Peacock’s one month survival rate across all 2023 sign-ups was 78%.

For Paramount+, Antenna observed that at the end of February 65% of the Super Bowl LVIII sign up cohort either remained subscribed to their paid subscription or had converted their free trial to paid. Antenna’s initial Paramount+ estimate does not include iTunes distribution, which Antenna estimates was 21% of the Paramount sign-ups.** 

For more detailed information on Antenna’s methodology and definitions of core metrics, please visit http://www.antenna.live/methodology.

^{* Antenna’s revised AFC Wild Card Sign-ups upwards to 3M with the release of official monthly data, from the preliminary 2.8M figure released on January 24.}

^{** iTunes cancellation rates for the Super Bowl LVIII sign-up cohort will be available when March data is released in April.}